Comments on Advanced NFL Stats: Andy Reid Is No Longer My Hero

"That said, I still believe the reason coache...

2010-01-04T16:57:51.971-05:00

"That said, I still believe the reason coaches don't consider this type of analysis is the same reason politicians make certain ridiculous decisions...self-preservation."

Agreed. It's no coincidence that the most counter-intuitive decisions were:

a) Either correct decisions or, at the very worst neutral decisions.
b) Made by the two coaches in the NFL with the best job security.

I'm talking about Mike Tomlin's onside kick and Bill Belichik's 4th-and-2. The Steelers never fire their coaches, while BB's job security is even more obvious.

"Field position matters when there is more ti...

2010-01-01T20:30:36.959-05:00

"Field position matters when there is more time..."

There was exactly enough time for the Eagles to get the ball back ~once. I don't see why field position wouldn't be as much of a deal as it was at any time.

Andy specifically said that the reason he did it is because he thought they needed to flip field position.

I don't think the coach should be thnking abou...

2009-12-31T12:47:37.590-05:00

I don't think the coach should be thnking about any earlier field position battles if the current decision is in the final minutes of the 4th quarter. Field position matters when there is more time to go back and forth.

That said, I still believe the reason coaches don't consider this type of analysis is the same reason politicians make certain ridiculous decisions...self-preservation. It's easier for Andy Reid to explain the punt, because if it backfires, it was the fault of the defensive scheme, plays called and the execution by the defensive players. If he goes for it and doesn't make it, the media descends on him as the lone scapegoat.

Even if this only registers subconciously, I'm sure it influences coaches to play conservative.

The Eagles short yardage game is fine this year. S...

2009-12-30T19:03:29.504-05:00

The Eagles short yardage game is fine this year. See above.

Are you really saying the Eagles should have forfeited a 20-30% chance of winning because they had field position problems earlier in the day, and that would have made them feel bad? And since you were there, you could sense these feelings?

Good point on the center's ACL, though. Didn't realize that.

Considering that the Eagles had been at the short ...

2009-12-30T18:58:16.701-05:00

Considering that the Eagles had been at the short end of the field position battle for the entire 4th quarter up to that point and missing on a 4th down conversion puts them right back in that scenario (and as someone who was at the game, believe me, that was the worst possible thing that could have happened to that team), punting was hardly a bad decision.

Plus, the Eagles have been having short-yardage difficulties for a couple of years now. Not to mention their starting center tore his ACL in the first quarter, which not only led to the running game performing poorly for the rest of the game but would make something such as, oh, I don't know, a QB sneak extremely difficult.

You said a team having the ball from their own 18 ...

2009-12-30T17:48:02.571-05:00

You said a team having the ball from their own 18 is 72 WP with 4 minutes to go. I'm wondering what the WP is for a team having the ball with 4 minutes to go on their own - say 5 yard line. I'm trying to figure the break even point similar to expected point - where the 15 yard line is the 0 expected points line.

If you could say your punter could put it inside the 10 50% of the time, how much better does the punt decision get? (Not sure what punter %'s are for this skill.)

Another view, given this analysis, how much time remaining would punting be equally as good as going for it? 5 minutes left? 6 minutes?

"If you have a 4th and 1 at about the 50 and ...

2009-12-30T17:31:14.472-05:00

"If you have a 4th and 1 at about the 50 and you go for it, the value of the two possible outcomes are exactly equal. In other words, either I have a 1st down at the 50, or my opponent has a 1st down at the 50. It's perfectly symmetrical."

I'd argue it's actually in favor of the offense; the odds of a play exceeding the needed yardage is larger than the odds of an equivalent loss of yardage. More reason to criticize Reid.

Yes, the WP curves are very linear late in the gam...

2009-12-30T16:46:29.991-05:00

Yes, the WP curves are very linear late in the game for field position. Only when you get inside fg range do they start bending upward.

Ok. Thanks. I misremembered. Red Zone channel has ...

2009-12-30T16:36:29.927-05:00

Ok. Thanks. I misremembered. Red Zone channel has given me football ADHD.

One thing that I question about these analyses is ...

2009-12-30T16:35:57.027-05:00

One thing that I question about these analyses is that you always use average yard line after the punt to get WP for the punt choice. I don't think that's right, though. One, is the WP(yard line) linear in the region being considered? That might be true as long as you are far enough away from the goal line, but it might not. Second, the distribution of possible starting yard lines won't be very symmetrical, due to touchbacks making the 20 yd line a very frequent outcome and starts inside the 10, and especially the five, very unlikely. Shouldn't this effect be accounted for? Maybe you've discussed it, or most likely it just isn't a big difference, but it always bothers me a little. Perhaps at least using the median rather than the average starting position might be an improvement.

"The Eagles eventually won the game, but only...

2009-12-30T16:29:57.133-05:00

"The Eagles eventually won the game, but only because the Broncos were unable to stop McNabb from converting on a 3rd and 25"

Might want to get your facts straight: McNabb converted the 3rd and 25 before the 4th and 1 conversion, not after it. The only unlikely play on the final drive was Maclin's catch, but even if that catch had failed, it would've still been 3rd and 8.