Comments on Advanced NFL Stats: Individual Player Pages

Ok. Thanks, Buzz.

2010-04-10T21:17:53.659-04:00

Ok. Thanks, Buzz.

Roy Williams doesnt look right - 253 targets in 20...

2010-04-10T20:58:42.334-04:00

Roy Williams doesnt look right - 253 targets in 2006. I think he is getting mixed up with reggie williams maybe since it shows him on Jax too?

Brian, Couple of stats that i think would be prett...

2010-03-11T19:27:00.390-05:00

Brian,
Couple of stats that i think would be pretty interesting mostly based on your article from last year
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/08/comparing-running-performance.html

First of all I think it would be interesting in general to see red zone performace both by team and player. For team I would think the run/pass ratio that you talked about in a previous article.

But what i think would be really interesting is to show success rate on rb carries inside the 5. Maybe something showing how many expected TD's an average running back should score (different success rates at each yard line) and comparing that with the TD's that the given rb really scored. This article basically says that almost all rbs get 3 yards on the majority of their carries which makes me believe that having a specific "goal line" running back might not really be beneficial. It would be interesting to see which rb's really are better at punching the ball in the end zone (if any). For example, In reality was mcgahee any better at scoring td's from short range this year than Rice would have been? Of course maybe goaline carries are so much more physical that you would still want to limit a smaller back like rice's carries inside the 5 to keep him fresh later.

Secondly, i would be interested in the number of runs for each rb over 10 yards (or 20) since these are what it seems seperates running backs from the average. I would also be interested in if this has a lot of regression (maybe rb A would have broken 5 tds for 80 yards but each time he had a run of that type he was at the opponent 10 yard line already thus costing him 70 yards on his ypc average) Maybe a stat such as yards per carry with all carries over 20 yards truncated at 20 yards would be more predictive of future sucess?

I know neither are super advanced stats but i think they might have more predictive value than the standard stats and i haven't seen similar data anywhere.

Thanks again for all of these updates - the stats are a great addition to an already great site!

So now, if there was any doubt that JaMarcus Russe...

2010-03-11T15:01:06.890-05:00

So now, if there was any doubt that JaMarcus Russell is utterly awful, there is no doubt...if I'm the Raiders, I would cut him this year, what with it being an uncapped year and they can unload his horrible contract.

Anquan Boldin is in fact not what he's cracked up to be...

Chris Johnson had an absolutely phenomenal season last year...

and why don't almost all teams throw the ball more?

When will you have playoff data?

2010-03-09T14:07:44.855-05:00

When will you have playoff data?

Yes, TO is and has been. Number of games played e...

2010-03-09T12:31:14.862-05:00

Yes, TO is and has been.

Number of games played each season would be useful.

We Redskins fans didn't need your fancy stats ...

2010-03-09T00:48:32.160-05:00

We Redskins fans didn't need your fancy stats to understand how useless Portis is.

Also, I've got a cutoff for minimum # of attem...

2010-03-09T00:40:07.399-05:00

Also, I've got a cutoff for minimum # of attempts for each position. You can see Faulk's 2009 numbers on the NE team page.

Vince-great idea. I'll do that for RB's in...

2010-03-09T00:39:22.835-05:00

Vince-great idea. I'll do that for RB's in the future. I'm going to eventually have 2 tables for each position, 1 with conventional stats, and one with "advanced" stats, so there will be plenty of room for all kinds of break outs.

Success Rate (SR) is defined the same way for all positions. It is the percentage of plays in which a player was "named" in the play-by-play description that resulted in a positive or neutral gain in net point expectancy. In other words, a 7-yd gain on 3rd and 8 would be a failure, but a 7-yd gain on 1st and 10 would be a success.

One caveat: receivers will tend to have higher SRs because several things must have gone well before the ball ever gets to them--good snap, good read, good pass protection, ball is not batted at the line, and so on.

Could you separate out players' rushing EPA fr...

2010-03-09T00:29:31.020-05:00

Could you separate out players' rushing EPA from their receiving EPA (and the same with WPA)? I wanted to see if Kevin Faulk's 5.1 ypc was actually productive, given his role, but I realized I can't tell whether his slightly negative EPA and WPA are due to his rushing or his receiving.

By the way, Faulk is not included on the list of RBs for the 2009 season (or for any other season, it looks like), even though he is included as a RB on the Patriots roster.

What is the definition of success rate for each po...

2010-03-09T00:25:49.078-05:00

What is the definition of success rate for each position?