Comments on Advanced NFL Stats: Was Drew Brees Really the Super Bowl MVP?

Relax dude, this is Advanced NFL Stats, not Conspi...

2010-03-02T11:58:53.330-05:00

Relax dude, this is Advanced NFL Stats, not Conspiracy Theory 101.

SOUNDS LIKE WE HAVE SOMEONE HERE THAT JUST THINKS ...

2010-03-02T02:42:29.239-05:00

SOUNDS LIKE WE HAVE SOMEONE HERE THAT JUST THINKS THAT BREES WAS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. THE SAINTS DID WIN AND THE COLTS DID LOSE.

I AM TAKING IT THAT THE WRITER IS BIG TIME COLTS FANS.

NOW THAT THE SAINTS WON THE SUPER BOWL NOW THE NFL WANTS TO CHANGE OT RULES. GEE, I WONDER WHY? THE REALLY DON'T WANT THEY SAINTS ANYWHERE NEAR SUPER BOWL CONTENTION IF THEY CAN HELP IT.

I THOUGHT THE COMMISSION WOULD BE BETTER THAN TAGLIABOU. HE IS A GUY THAT NEEDS TO BE IN TOTAL CONTROL.

A TOTAL CONTROL FREAK!!!!!!!!!

"But something tells me they're [the Sain...

2010-02-09T17:25:09.795-05:00

"But something tells me they're [the Saints offensive linemen] very bothered that they're not on Advanced NFL Stats' MVP list today."

Is that deliberate irony, or di dyou mean to type "they're NOT very bothered"?

Love the articles.

-J

I like Jeltz's idea, it sounds like a solid wa...

2010-02-09T17:05:31.399-05:00

I like Jeltz's idea, it sounds like a solid way to improve WPA. You could also evaluate the coach's WPA, and see if the players' bailed him out (ie the kicker gets an additional WPA boost if he made that field goal.)

Brian, have you ever considered factoring in the p...

2010-02-09T15:19:52.782-05:00

Brian, have you ever considered factoring in the play-call as a discrete event with its own WPA, rather than just the plays themselves? In each situation, the play-caller has to decide to do one of the following: Run, Pass, Kick for Field Goal, or Punt. (could maybe add a few, like "take a knee", but you get the idea)

Suppose a team has 4th and 2 at the opponents 40. The coach decides to attempt a field goal. This decision alone, the decision to kick a FG, would instantly decrease WPA, before the kick was even attempted. Then, if the kicker misses, WPA would decrease again, but only slightly. This way, the kicker doesn't bear the full brunt of the negative WPA. He's only responsible for a small portion, whereas the play-caller would rightly get a larger share of the negative WPA. This would be a great tool to evaluate coaching decisions, and seperate their judgement out from player execution. Perhaps this would also help the WPA distortion caused by work-horse running backs who are asked to carry the ball multiple times to protect a late game lead. Most of the impact on WPA in such plays would be felt by the play caller rather than the running back.

This is pretty cool. Kind of amazing that Reggie ...

2010-02-09T13:28:56.797-05:00

This is pretty cool. Kind of amazing that Reggie Wayne had such a negative effect on the outcome, though I suppose he was listed as the intended reciever on that INT?

Eddo-Thx. Had that mixed up in my head. Thought Sh...

2010-02-09T11:50:51.712-05:00

Eddo-Thx. Had that mixed up in my head. Thought Shockey's catch came earlier.

As much as I love U of I alumni, Pierre Thomas did...

2010-02-09T11:44:07.016-05:00

As much as I love U of I alumni, Pierre Thomas did not score the final go-ahead touchdown; Jeremy Shockey did.

Thomas scored on the Saints' drive following the onside kick, which *was* a go-ahead score, but I wouldn't say that was "late in the game".

@Ryan: I think the logic voters have is this:
1. Did the winning quarterback have a very good game? (ex: Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Steve Young)
2. If not, did another individual have a stand-out performance? (ex: Desmond Howard, Santonio Holmes, Terrell Davis, Marcus Allen, Jerry Rice, Larry Brown)
3. If not, did the winning quarterback play well and/or lead a fourth-quarter game-winning drive? (ex: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Eli Manning)
4. If not, and the defense carried the team, did they have a high-profile leader? (ex: Ray Lewis)
5. If not, did a defensive player do something notable, like score a touchdown or cause multiple turnovers? (ex: Dexter Jackson, Richard Dent)
6. If not, pick someone that scored a touchdown, had 100+ yards, or played a pretty good game. (ex: Hines Ward)

Daniel: Wasn't Hartley. It was Thomas Morstea...

2010-02-09T11:08:18.323-05:00

Daniel:
Wasn't Hartley. It was Thomas Morstead, a rookie punter. I'd be curious to see what his WPA is, or any punter really, but especially given the onside kick.

Anon: Yeah, it would. I think they usually get it...

2010-02-09T11:05:03.944-05:00

Anon:
Yeah, it would. I think they usually get it right, picking the players who make the biggest plays (think Desmond Howard), but it would be interesting to see if that's really the case. With the Colts' win a few years ago, everyone said Manning didn't deserve it as much as, say, Dominic Rhodes... but the MVP award seems to have become more of a "playoffs MVP" when it's not so clear-cut. Since Manning was the biggest, most obvious reason they made the Super Bowl in the first place, it was pretty much a foregone conclusion he'd win MVP as long as they won the game.

Did you give Hartley credit for the onside kick to...

2010-02-09T11:04:04.851-05:00

Did you give Hartley credit for the onside kick too?

It would be interesting to see past super bowl MVP...

2010-02-09T10:50:23.383-05:00

It would be interesting to see past super bowl MVP's based on WPA. Not sure how far back you can go.