Advanced NFL Stats

So after the Bradshaw blunder, should we now tell ...

2012-02-07T00:28:14.616-05:00

So after the Bradshaw blunder, should we now tell runners to take a knee at the two yard line to run out the clock?

Spybloom: If there are ten seconds left with the...

2012-02-06T22:26:36.587-05:00

Spybloom: If there are *ten* seconds left with the ball at the half-yard line, that's almost assuredly *two* plays, since the offense is certainly going to do something quick, like a fade pass to the corner.

First of all, it's certainly not "a lot&q...

2012-02-06T22:26:11.068-05:00

First of all, it's certainly not "a lot" of hand waving. You make a worthy point but an instantaneous TD when a team is in full prevent is still going to less common than a missed XP.

"It was smart. There was only time for a maxi...

2012-02-06T21:10:05.321-05:00

"It was smart. There was only time for a maximum of one more score." I still think this analysis includes a lot of hand-waving. It's not possible to have two lead changes in the final minute of the game? Instead we're going to place our faith in the much more common missed extra point? How soon have we forgotten this, not quite the same situation, but perhaps even more unbelievable: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/boxscore?gid=20120114025

Matt W.: The game can't end on a defensive pen...

2012-02-06T20:00:21.322-05:00

Matt W.: The game can't end on a defensive penalty, however. In your situation on the half yard line all it would accomplish for the defense is delay the (possible) score and make them more tired by having to run a play over and over, even if it doesn't count. I see what you're saying, though, in relation to the play last night; taking an intentional penalty with the end zone 80ish yards away and little time. Strategic, but not very sportsmanlike ever something the nfl should think about.

I've often thought it's a big hole in the ...

2012-02-06T19:00:40.742-05:00

I've often thought it's a big hole in the rules that a defensive team can commit a penalty late in the game with little downside. Say a trailing team has second and goal from the other team's half-yard line with 10 seconds in the game. In this situation, there is essentially no harm for the defense in committing any kind of penalty to prevent a score. If it's a pass, the defense can hold, interfere, attack the receivers with nunchuks, it doesn't matter. As long as there's no TD and 5 or 6 seconds wind off the clock, there's no harm in getting a penalty. They ought to look into adding the time back on the clock for situations like this. In the Giants' case, they could have sent 15 men out on defense, as long as they're not in the huddle, as that would result in a whistle before the play. Even if they make an Int. that's called back, it would wind even more time off the clock.

@JG - May be you weren't watching the game but...

2012-02-06T18:32:23.155-05:00

@JG - May be you weren't watching the game but the pass that was incomplete to Branch but that would have taken Branch to the 45 minimum with one guy to beat.

(see around 7:25 of NFL.com highlight here:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights
)

Hi Brian, LOVE the post. Just found your blog for...

2012-02-06T17:14:47.371-05:00

Hi Brian,

LOVE the post. Just found your blog for the first time today and I already know where the next several days of my life are going.

I wanted your thoughts on how you would adjust the final graph for a team that doesn't have much that's average -- the NE Pats.

The offense is almost always in the top 5 for the league, and the defense in the bottom 5. If I understand your article right:

1) The top-tier offense has a better than average EP for all of their first downs. That makes 4th down attempts more valuable than average.

2) A defense that is 31st in yards means that the EP on a punt are reduced. That makes punts worse than average.

How drastic an impact do you think that has on the graph?

dand -- Yes, if he had still been standing, he cou...

2012-02-06T17:13:01.600-05:00

dand -- Yes, if he had still been standing, he could have been shoved in by NE. But if he had slid or taken a knee, the play would have been over immediately.

1 decision I haven't seen anybody mention is t...

2012-02-06T17:02:40.509-05:00

1 decision I haven't seen anybody mention is the fact that Giants took an XP on their first TD.

Had they gotten 2 points they were up 10. If they didn't get it, they would put NE in a though spot if they had gotten a TD. A 9 point lead doesn't do anything, except making it a two possision game

@tally, read the link in my previous comment. BB ...

2012-02-06T16:47:53.708-05:00

@tally, read the link in my previous comment. BB wrote an EXCELLENT piece about how the term "field goal range" is fallacious. I was just giving him a hard time for using a term he himself hates. BB love the blog!! Keep up the great work!!

Would it have been illegal for a NE player to push...

2012-02-06T16:42:02.739-05:00

Would it have been illegal for a NE player to push Bradshaw into the endzone?

Re the Giants time outs, I ordinarly agree that te...

2012-02-06T16:25:09.876-05:00

Re the Giants time outs, I ordinarly agree that teams take time outs far too often to avoid delay-of-game penalties (especially in the 2nd half, when TOs are more valuable). But watching the game, I couldn't kill the Giants for either TO on the ultimately ill-fated drive in the 4th quarter. Both, I believe, were on 3rd downs where the 5 yards made a big difference. The first time, they converted the first down on a 3rd and 1 that otherwise would have been a 3rd and 6. The second time, they had a 3rd and 5 that would have been a 3rd and 10 (and subsequently became one after the false start, which was the drive-killer, but that doesn't go to whether the time out itself was a good thing). In hindsight, of course, they looked really bad because the drive wound up failing, but at the time, the situations in question were high-leverage ones where the 5 yards made a big difference.

Hi Brian, do you happen to have a spreadsheet for ...

2012-02-06T16:22:20.149-05:00

Hi Brian, do you happen to have a spreadsheet for "Win Probability"(or one with a formula embedded within a spreadsheet) that is similar to your "Expected Points" spreadsheet that we can download and view the data without using the widget? Thanks so much and keep up the great work.

@ASG - I think the odds of the Pats scoring in 1-2...

2012-02-06T16:16:20.597-05:00

@ASG - I think the odds of the Pats scoring in 1-2 plays are very slim when playing against a prevent-type defense. The whole point (and sometimes the significant downside) of the prevent is to prevent big plays at all costs. The Pats' best hope was to get big chunks (20 yds a time).

Still don't agree with a flat out declaration ...

2012-02-06T16:08:01.202-05:00

Still don't agree with a flat out declaration that there was only time for a maximum of one more score. If the Pats scored on the 1st or 2nd play (they were very close to a ~35 yard pass on their first play), it is possible the Giants might have had time for a FG of their own.

JG is correct. In the 1954 Cotton bowl an Alabama ...

2012-02-06T16:02:40.542-05:00

JG is correct. In the 1954 Cotton bowl an Alabama player came off the sideline to tackle a Rice University player. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eSteCSinjTs&t=30s

I saw some video this morning; it looked like one ...

2012-02-06T15:39:22.903-05:00

I saw some video this morning; it looked like one Giant defender was trying to run off the field and didn't make it to the sideline before the snap.

should definitely have let giants score from 18 w/...

2012-02-06T14:55:55.406-05:00

should definitely have let giants score from 18 w/ 2 minutes left - tynes missing prob (10%?) vs Brady scoring TD prob (30%?) - coughlan of course should have fallen on ball 3 times - each coach went for conventional wisdom vs math, and each was wrong

This is probably nitpicking, but it's hard to ...

2012-02-06T14:54:50.528-05:00

This is probably nitpicking, but it's hard to see it as that gutsy a call to let the Giants/Bradshaw score. I'd bet he'd get support from virtually all of the commentariat--everyone understands that the chipshot FG is basically a lock.

I think the Packers already did a version of the "let them score" defense against the Broncos in their SB (though that was even less controversial).

What looked like Coughlin's decision to not take the score (that Bradshaw messed up) would probably be a bit more gutsy, but still pretty standard.

Neither is anything like going for it on 4th and 2 at your 28 yard line with the lead! I'd love to see Belichick do THAT in a Super Bowl!

Yes, yes, yes. You got me. I should have written &...

2012-02-06T14:53:58.249-05:00

Yes, yes, yes. You got me. I should have written "field goal attempt range"!

@ff: There are 2 little-known rules in the ruleboo...

2012-02-06T14:38:17.605-05:00

@ff: There are 2 little-known rules in the rulebook that would prevent the Giants from doing that.

First, Rule 12-3-2 states: "The defense shall not commit successive or continued fouls to prevent a score. Penalty: For continuous fouls to prevent a score: If the violation is repeated after a warning, the
score involved is awarded to the offensive team."

Now, the key here (of benefit to the defensive team) is that there needs to be a second violation after a warning - so a team basically gets a "free shot" at putting an extra guy out there and the refs will give them the benefit of the doubt that it's not intentional. After a warning, though, if the ref is convinced it was intentional (as I think a second consecutive 12th man in a situation like last night would be), they could award a TD under the rules.

The very next rule, 12-3-3, is a penalty for a "palpably unfair act" - "A player or substitute shall not interfere with play by any act which is palpably unfair.
Penalty: For a palpably unfair act: Offender may be disqualified. The Referee, after consulting his
crew, enforces any such distance penalty as they consider equitable and irrespective of any
other specified code penalty. The Referee could award a score."

This latter rule is a catch-all that basically enables the ref to do what's equitable if a team or player does something really nuts or unfair. (The classic case is if a someone comes off the sideline onto the field during a play and tackles a guy who's headed for the end zone - the ref can award the TD. This actually happened a long time ago in a college game involving Alabama, I believe.) I think that if a team put 20 guys on the field (meaning there's no way it was an accident), a ref could use this rule to put the time back on the clock (and probably award at least 15 yards).

As noted above, though, the way to "get away" with this is to just put 1 extra guy on the field - the refs will almost certainly give you the benefit of the doubt that it wasn't intentional, so all you'll get is a 5-yard penalty. So had the Giants done this last night, it would have been the perfect play. As it turns out, Deadspin posted a video a short while ago showing that, in fact, Tuck was trying to get off the field on the play, so it really wasn't intional after all.

Do kickers convert field goals in clutch situation...

2012-02-06T13:58:24.299-05:00

Do kickers convert field goals in clutch situations at the same rate as non-clutch situations? Call it the Scott Norwood/Billy Cundiff question? When running your analysis of scoring a TD or running down the clock are you looking at FG% for all FG's or just game tying/game winners? It occurs to me that kickers might convert at a lower rate in pressure situations.

When would've been the correct time to let the...

2012-02-06T13:57:53.660-05:00

When would've been the correct time to let them score. The Nicks slant or the Bradshaw run at the 2min warning?

Can the refs can blow the whistle when they see to...

2012-02-06T12:49:36.876-05:00

Can the refs can blow the whistle when they see too many men on the field before the snap?