Advanced NFL Stats Overview

Who has the longest interception return ever? Which running back ran for the most yards in a single game? What team scored the most fourth quarter touchdowns in a season?

Answer: I don't care.

That's trivia, not statistics. What I'm interested in is analysis. What makes a winning team? Is it better to go for it or punt on 4th and short at the 50 yard line? Which teams are most likely to make the playoffs? How much does luck play a part in any game?

Advanced NFL Stats tries to answer those questions and many others. I call it "Advanced" because I use real statistical methods--regression, tests of significance, game theory, simulation and other advanced techniques. This isn't the kind of analysis you get on TV, and it's not for everyone.

This site is where you'll find some of the most innovative and interesting research in professional football. Almost everything here is completely original, but I also take a critical look at other analysis out there, debunking myths and fallacies where I find them. Being innovative and original can be risky, however. I can sometimes make mistakes, but I'm always open to constructive criticism and better ideas.

Thanks for stopping by.