Luckiest NFL Teams Week 5

Based on opponent-adjusted generic win probability (GWP), the number of expected wins can be estimated for each NFL team. Teams that have won more games than expected can be considered lucky, while teams with fewer wins than expected can be considered unlucky.

The list of teams sorted from luckiest (positive numbers) to unluckiest is posted below. We would expect most teams to be within +/- 1.0 wins. So teams outside that margin can be deemed lucky or unlucky.

Team	Adj GWP	Wins	Expected	Luck
DET	0.25	3	1.3	1.7
CHI	0.16	2	0.8	1.2
CAR	0.36	3	1.8	1.2
BAL	0.37	3	1.9	1.1
GB	0.60	4	3.0	1.0
DAL	0.82	5	4.1	0.9
SF	0.26	2	1.3	0.7
OAK	0.34	2	1.3	0.7
IND	0.90	5	4.5	0.5
PIT	0.70	4	3.5	0.5
NE	0.92	5	4.6	0.4
CLE	0.34	2	1.7	0.3
TEN	0.69	3	2.8	0.2
HOU	0.61	3	3.0	0.0
JAX	0.76	3	3.1	-0.1
ARI	0.62	3	3.1	-0.1
KC	0.43	2	2.2	-0.2
WAS	0.81	3	3.2	-0.2
SD	0.47	2	2.4	-0.4
NYJ	0.28	1	1.4	-0.4
MIN	0.40	1	1.6	-0.6
TB	0.73	3	3.6	-0.6
SEA	0.73	3	3.7	-0.7
NO	0.23	0	0.9	-0.9
ATL	0.40	1	2.0	-1.0
NYG	0.82	3	4.1	-1.1
BUF	0.43	1	2.1	-1.1
STL	0.24	0	1.2	-1.2
CIN	0.60	1	2.4	-1.4
DEN	0.70	2	3.5	-1.5
PHI	0.70	1	2.8	-1.8
MIA	0.47	0	2.4	-2.4