Week 7 Efficiency Rankings

The ratings are listed below in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, and team penalty rates. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here. This year, however, I've made one important change based on research that strongly indicates that defensive interception rates are highly random and not consistent throughout the year. Accordingly, I've removed them from the model and updated the weights of the remaining stats.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is the ranking of offensive generic win probability which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

RANK	TEAM	LAST WK	GWP	Opp GWP	ORANK	DRANK
1	WAS	1	0.76	0.55	1	3
2	PHI	3	0.72	0.57	4	4
3	SD	2	0.68	0.52	5	13
4	CAR	4	0.68	0.54	9	2
5	BUF	14	0.65	0.49	14	8
6	PIT	12	0.65	0.45	18	1
7	CHI	6	0.63	0.53	10	7
8	NYG	5	0.63	0.43	2	18
9	NO	8	0.62	0.54	6	16
10	DAL	7	0.59	0.52	11	15
11	ATL	11	0.59	0.46	3	23
12	MIA	9	0.59	0.50	7	27
13	ARI	10	0.58	0.57	8	20
14	TB	13	0.55	0.54	17	5
15	TEN	17	0.54	0.39	20	10
16	NYJ	15	0.50	0.50	28	9
17	MIN	18	0.49	0.51	21	11
18	GB	22	0.48	0.46	16	12
19	JAX	20	0.46	0.52	12	22
20	IND	19	0.46	0.49	13	19
21	DEN	16	0.45	0.48	15	29
22	OAK	23	0.44	0.52	24	21
23	BAL	24	0.42	0.48	27	6
24	HOU	21	0.41	0.48	22	31
25	SF	25	0.40	0.50	30	14
26	STL	30	0.40	0.61	19	26
27	NE	26	0.36	0.47	25	28
28	CLE	28	0.35	0.56	23	24
29	SEA	29	0.34	0.51	26	25
30	CIN	27	0.31	0.52	31	17
31	KC	31	0.23	0.52	32	30
32	DET	32	0.23	0.50	29	32

The to-date season efficiency stats are listed below.

TEAM	OPASS	ORUN	OINTRATE	OFUMRATE	DPASS	DRUN	DINTRATE	PENRATE
ARI	7.16	3.24	0.023	0.025	6.71	4.01	0.017	0.40
ATL	6.68	5.02	0.019	0.010	6.35	4.40	0.024	0.34
BAL	5.39	3.75	0.042	0.033	5.52	2.84	0.044	0.50
BUF	7.02	3.64	0.017	0.023	5.47	4.07	0.021	0.26
CAR	6.90	3.66	0.025	0.014	5.16	4.01	0.018	0.42
CHI	6.50	3.63	0.017	0.019	5.65	3.73	0.035	0.40
CIN	4.05	3.21	0.030	0.037	6.00	4.37	0.020	0.35
CLE	4.89	3.78	0.033	0.023	6.65	4.80	0.057	0.45
DAL	7.60	4.87	0.034	0.041	5.95	4.01	0.009	0.55
DEN	7.02	4.63	0.027	0.032	7.10	5.09	0.010	0.39
DET	5.16	4.28	0.036	0.038	8.19	4.79	0.006	0.41
GB	6.67	3.66	0.018	0.028	5.34	4.89	0.056	0.61
HOU	6.51	4.39	0.037	0.035	7.74	4.41	0.019	0.16
IND	6.30	3.28	0.031	0.011	5.98	4.41	0.030	0.47
JAX	5.76	4.11	0.022	0.016	6.75	4.46	0.031	0.40
KC	4.10	4.43	0.040	0.029	7.50	5.62	0.020	0.27
MIA	7.26	4.14	0.016	0.017	7.35	3.61	0.017	0.28
MIN	5.77	4.28	0.033	0.028	6.32	2.95	0.018	0.46
NE	5.21	4.38	0.022	0.015	7.14	4.59	0.037	0.37
NO	8.06	3.56	0.027	0.030	6.11	4.26	0.021	0.50
NYG	6.83	5.62	0.021	0.013	5.64	3.76	0.022	0.49
NYJ	5.70	4.46	0.045	0.026	5.97	3.15	0.024	0.33
OAK	5.30	4.52	0.012	0.035	6.38	4.56	0.036	0.47
PHI	6.87	3.68	0.018	0.017	5.55	3.54	0.033	0.30
PIT	6.15	3.86	0.018	0.031	4.14	2.94	0.029	0.43
SD	7.99	3.81	0.026	0.019	6.17	4.20	0.022	0.26
SF	6.07	4.43	0.051	0.039	6.23	3.88	0.035	0.47
SEA	4.18	4.87	0.041	0.012	7.27	3.85	0.005	0.33
STL	4.92	4.08	0.018	0.023	7.42	5.02	0.023	0.45
TB	5.78	4.50	0.031	0.016	5.92	3.73	0.053	0.48
TEN	6.11	4.50	0.032	0.017	4.77	3.63	0.048	0.39
WAS	6.30	4.73	0.000	0.013	5.45	3.85	0.021	0.32
Avg	6.13	4.16	0.027	0.024	6.25	4.11	0.027	0.40