Koko Fantasy Rankings - Tight Ends

Tight ends are relatively easy to project. In addition to their steadily increasing prominence, the notable thing about TEs is how steep the fall-off is among the top several players. In case you aren't familiar with the Koko rankings, they are the simplest projections possible based on previous-year performance. The rankings are intended to serve as the baseline for the bare-minimum accuracy we should expect from all other fantasy projections. A full explanation can be found in the write-up for the QB rankings.

I'll cut right to the chase. Here are how tight end TDs per game and receiving yards per game regress. As you'd expect, yards are more consistent and predictable than TDs.



Fumbles are unpredictable, and hover at 0.2 fumbles per game. Top TEs tend to be relatively durable, and will play 14.5 games per year. Based on standard scoring of 6 points per TD, 1 point for 20 receiving yards, and -2 points for each fumble, here is how the projections stack up:

Rank	Player	TD/G	Yds/G	Fum/G	Pts/G	Total Pts
1	Tony Gonzalez	0.40	57.6	0.2	4.9	70.7
2	Dallas Clark	0.30	50.5	0.2	3.9	57.0
3	Antonio Gates	0.34	41.2	0.2	3.7	54.1
4	Jason Witten	0.24	52.7	0.2	3.6	52.9
5	Visanthe Shiancoe	0.32	36.2	0.2	3.3	48.1
6	Tony Scheffler	0.23	45.4	0.2	3.2	46.8
7	Kellen Winslow	0.26	40.3	0.2	3.2	45.8
8	Owen Daniels	0.18	48.6	0.2	3.1	45.1
9	John Carlson	0.26	37.6	0.2	3.1	44.3
10	Anthony Fasano	0.32	29.6	0.2	3.0	43.3
11	Greg Olsen	0.26	35.2	0.2	2.9	42.5
12	Chris Cooley	0.15	48.0	0.2	2.9	42.3
13	Kevin Boss	0.30	27.5	0.2	2.8	40.3
14	Zach Miller	0.15	44.6	0.2	2.7	39.8
15	Heath Miller	0.22	35.8	0.2	2.7	39.2
16	Dustin Keller	0.21	33.3	0.2	2.5	36.4
17	Bo Scaife	0.18	34.6	0.2	2.4	34.9
18	Billy Miller	0.15	37.2	0.2	2.4	34.6
19	Daniel Graham	0.24	26.6	0.2	2.3	33.9
20	David Martin	0.21	29.4	0.2	2.3	33.6
21	Donald Lee	0.26	22.5	0.2	2.3	33.4
22	Jeremy Shockey	0.13	38.4	0.2	2.3	33.0
23	Marcedes Lewis	0.18	31.2	0.2	2.2	32.5
24	L.J. Smith	0.23	25.5	0.2	2.2	32.4
25	Jerramy Stevens	0.19	29.6	0.2	2.2	32.0
26	Todd Heap	0.21	27.2	0.2	2.2	32.0
27	Martellus Bennett	0.24	21.7	0.2	2.1	30.3
28	Alex Smith	0.22	21.8	0.2	2.0	29.1
29	Vernon Davis	0.18	25.1	0.2	1.9	28.1
30	Robert Royal	0.15	25.9	0.2	1.8	26.4
31	Desmond Clark	0.15	25.5	0.2	1.8	26.0
32	Benjamin Watson	0.19	19.6	0.2	1.7	24.7