Dec 10, 2009

Team Playoff Probabilities - Week 14

Courtesy of NFL-Forecast.com, here are the latest playoff forecasts. The tables below do not include results from the Thursday games.

The Jaguars and Broncos have strengthened their positions in the AFC, while the Giants, Eagles, and Packers have improved their chances in the NFC.



These playoff probabilities are calculated using the NFL-Forecast software mini-app that runs thousands of simulated seasons. The outcomes are based on game-by-game probabilities with every crazy tie-breaking scenario factored in. Chris has used the probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats as his default game probabilities for the past two seasons.

There are two tables below. The first lists the probability that each team will finish in each place in their division. The second table lists the overall playoff probabilities, broken down by seed. The probabilities are rounded as percentages to make the table easier to read.


AFC EAST
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
NE
93
6
1
0
NYJ
4
65
30
2
MIA
3
28
64
4
BUF
0
1
5
94
AFC NORTH
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
CIN
98
2
0
0
BAL
1
55
45
0
PIT
1
44
55
0
CLE
0
0
0
100
AFC SOUTH
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
IND
100
0
0
0
JAC
0
93
6
1
TEN
0
3
61
36
HOU
0
4
34
63
AFC WEST
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
SD
79
21
0
0
DEN
21
79
0
0
OAK
0
0
85
15
KC
0
0
15
85
NFC EAST
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
PHI
44
31
25
0
NYG
29
37
34
0
DAL
28
32
40
0
WAS
0
0
0
100
NFC NORTH
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
MIN
97
3
0
0
GB
3
96
1
0
CHI
0
1
99
0
DET
0
0
0
100
NFC SOUTH
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
NO
100
0
0
0
ATL
0
84
16
0
CAR
0
16
84
0
TB
0
0
0
100
NFC WEST
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
ARI
99
1
0
0
SF
1
81
18
0
SEA
0
18
82
0
STL
0
0
0
100



AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
Total
IND
100
0
0
0
0
0
100
SD
0
68
10
2
16
3
99
CIN
0
15
46
37
0
0
99
DEN
0
15
5
1
50
20
91
NE
0
2
36
54
0
1
94
NYJ
0
0
1
2
0
4
8
PIT
0
0
1
0
9
16
27
MIA
0
0
0
3
0
2
5
JAC
0
0
0
0
18
35
53
BAL
0
0
0
0
7
17
25
BUF
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
HOU
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TEN
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
CLE
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
KC
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OAK
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
Total
NO
98
2
0
0
0
0
100
MIN
2
76
13
6
2
1
100
ARI
0
10
37
52
0
0
99
PHI
0
8
29
7
15
18
77
GB
0
2
1
0
65
22
91
NYG
0
1
9
18
12
27
68
DAL
0
1
12
15
5
29
61
SF
0
0
0
1
0
2
3
SEA
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
ATL
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
CAR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
CHI
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
WAS
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
DET
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TB
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
STL
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
By Brian Burke

11 comments:

  1. Wow, this model LOVES the Giants. There is another website that tackles the exact same questions (http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL.html), and it gives the Giants a 13% chance of winning the division and a 44% chance of making the playoffs, while this model puts those numbers at 29% and 68%, respectively.

    I'm guessing the difference comes down to how each model calculates individual game probabilities, and I was unable to find a good explanation at that website for how they do that. I'm hoping this one is more accurate!
    ReplyDelete
  2. One more thing. Anybody who loves looking at this stuff should absolutely download the app from nfl-forecast.com, it's amazing. It's fun to play with, and they have individual probability sliders for each remaining game that you can tinker with if you don't like the default settings. Or you can "give" a team a win in a certain game and see how the playoff race would play out from there. Great stuff.
    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Dave --

    Glad you like the software. One thing I can say confidently about my software is that the tiebreakers are applied rigorously, through strength of schedule. In particular, I handle the 3-way ties correctly, which cold be important in the NFC east this year. From everything I could see at sportsclubstats.com it appears that they do the 3-way tiebreakers correctly too. The main difference seems to be that they believe Dallas is stronger and the Giants weaker than predicted by Brian's model.
    ReplyDelete
  4. Chris, how are the Colts 100% in the #1 seed when they haven't officially clinched it yet? Also, same thing with teams at 0% who have not yet been mathematically eliminated? Is this due to rounding?
    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi Brett --

    Yes. On my website, I show the odds as 99.78, which is essentially 6 times in 5000 simulations where another team wins the #1 seed. But some long-shot events can be even more rare and show as 0.00$ chance even on my site because they don' occur even once in 5000 simulations.
    ReplyDelete
  6. After tonight's loss, Pittsburgh's playoff chances dropped to 2.5%. Even if they win the rest of their games, it is only like 7.5%.
    ReplyDelete
  7. I think that pretty much eliminates the Steelers right.
    ReplyDelete
  8. Chris,

    What are the Jets' odds if they run the table? Should the Jets be rooting for Miami or Jacksonville this weekend?
    ReplyDelete
  9. Hi Chase --

    If the Jets run the table, they have a 78% chance of making the playoffs.

    If the Jets run the table, and Jacksonville wins, the Jets odds are 72%

    If the Jets run the table and Miami wins, the Jets odds are 86%.

    You're a fins fan this weekend.

    BTW, my software is sooooo easy to run. You could look at this kind of thing yourself. You should give it a try. Your NFL season will never be the same.
    ReplyDelete
  10. I second that. I truly recommend Chris's app. You can play 'what if' to your heart's delight. And, you can see other stuff, like the distribution of expected wins for each team.

    Plus additional significant digits, too!
    ReplyDelete
  11. Thanks, Chris. I asked my question when I wasn't at a computer where I could download your app. I'll definitely do it now.
    ReplyDelete

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