About a year ago I made a powerpoint about when teams should go for it on 4th down. The goal was to have something other than a 4-part blog post or a scholarly research paper that could be used to convince the doubters out there. I never published it because I was never really thrilled with it. I wanted to keep it as short as possible, knowing most people generally don't have lots of time to devote to abstract notions of "Expected Points" in the NFL. The result was an unfortunate eye chart of bullets, sub-bullets, and graphs.
I think it's salvageable with some work, at least as a presentation for a willing audience. But I decided to start over with something much simpler, designed for the uninitiated on the topic. I got the powerpoint religion and abandoned my bullet-ridden format for something I hope is more compelling and more entertaining. My hope is that it's more accessible, and it gets emailed and twittered around a little.
Here is the revised version:
And this was the original which goes into another level of detail: