Super Bowl Win Probability Graph

We'll see if the new online server can handle the load.

The new address for live games is live.advancednflstats.com. Share your thoughts on the (now automatically refreshing) chat/comment feature.

The new address for the mobile version is live.advancednflstats.com/WPmobileLive.php. It works on all web-accessible devices, including iPhones, Androids, and Blackberries. It's also a good substitute for any browser that doesn't play nice with Flash.

And for those of you with your own sites, remember you can add the graph with these few lines of code:



As Carson says, Go Football!

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3 Responses to “Super Bowl Win Probability Graph”

  1. mcsnide says:

    Should the packers have gone for it on 4th down? The chances of coming from the 5 to get a FG couldn't be much better than scoring a TD after a KO, right?

  2. Ryan says:

    Yes. They should have gone for it. Using the raw numbers from the WP calculator, I get these WP numbers:

    Go for it and make it: 0.96
    Go for it and miss: 0.88

    Made field goal: 0.76 (!)

    Eyeballing the 4th down average conversion rate graph gives a 0.36 percent chance to convert, so overall,

    Go for it: 0.96*0.36 + 0.88*0.0.64 = 0.91

    So going for it gives a 0.91 WP, while kicking gives a 0.76 WP.

    According to the WP numbers, the Packers would have been better off taking a knee than attempting a field goal! Field position is one part of it, but the other important consideration is that NFL teams typically play for the tie down 3, whereas using all 4 downs to go for a touchdown down 4 or more. WP numbers for teams down 3 late in the game are actually lower than those for a team down 4 to 6 because of this.

  3. Brian Burke says:

    Ryan- You are exactly right. That's just what I wrote about in my game write-up tonight. Crazy, isn't it?

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