Playoff Projections - Week 10

As always, these numbers come courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com and are generated with the help of his NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to create a Monte Carlo season simulation. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.

The AFC wildcard competitors appear to be either BAL or PIT, depending on who loses the division, plus IND, MIA, SD, and NYJ. In the NFC, it's looking like either CHI or GB, whichever team comes in second, plus SEA, DAL, MIN, and a bunch at 10% or below. Despite what the numbers say, it looks like NO has improved significantly beyond their early-season lows and have a better shot than indicated.

These numbers do not count IND's win last night. Sorry about that. They were heavily favored by the model, so the effect is modest. For up to date numbers, you can always go straight to nfl-forecast.com.


AFC EAST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
NE6325102
MIA2940229
NYJ6244426
BUF2112463
AFC NORTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
BAL444880
PIT543971
CIN2137015
CLE011584
AFC SOUTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
HOU97300
IND384131
TEN0126622
JAC012178
AFC WEST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
DEN98200
SD260380
OAK038602
KC00397
NFC EAST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
NYG762041
DAL17482411
PHI4183939
WAS3143349
NFC NORTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
CHI5630103
GB32372010
DET7193539
MIN5143448
NFC SOUTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
ATL98200
TB2473516
CAR0414118
NO0112366
NFC WEST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
SF92710
SEA769196
STL1144737
ARI093457


AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team1st2nd3rd4th5th6thTotal
HOU79134120100
DEN135221121199
NE41019307979
BAL2111913191276
PIT292320141180
IND1110221741
MIA031115111453
SD000191122
NYJ00154818
CIN00113510
OAK00005712
BUF0002237
TEN0000123
CLE0000000
JAC0000000
KC0000000
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team1st2nd3rd4th5th6thTotal
ATL52251460199
SF253321133297
CHI1317179201187
NYG71422334686
GB37148211669
SEA0221262053
DET0132121332
MIN01134715
TB00013611
DAL002153727
STL0011146
PHI0004015
ARI0000123
WAS0003125
NO0000011
CAR0000123

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11 Responses to “Playoff Projections - Week 10”

  1. Kos says:

    Does this model just factor in straight win probability for each week? If so, the Colts are potentially underrated, as they play Houston in week 17 (when the Texans will probably have the #1 seed locked up and have their starters benched). The Bucs are potentially in the same boat, too, as they play at Atlanta (which I'm sure is a low WP game for them on paper) in the final week.

  2. flex727 says:

    How did you determine the order to list the teams in the playoff seeding? Shouldn't it be in order of Total Probability?

  3. Anonymous says:

    flex, I think it's sorted by 1st then 2nd then 3rd...

  4. Mike says:

    Interesting how wide open the NFC still looks. Every team with at least a 1% chance of making the playoffs.

  5. tmk says:

    Except Brian couldn't resist putting BLT above PIT...fair and balanced?

  6. flex727 says:

    "flex, I think it's sorted by 1st then 2nd then 3rd..."

    I thought that too, but that doesn't explain Dallas' position.

  7. ed315 says:

    Well Brian just put it in the same order it was already in on http://files.nfl-forecast.com/.

    I know in past weeks it was sorted like anonymous said, don't know what happened this week.

  8. Mike says:

    It looks like it's sorted by "first seed" probability. The rounding just masks the relative position.

    So, TB may have a 0.2% chance of getting the first seed, but DAL only has 0.1% (making the numbers up).

    Dallas doesn't have to catch an undefeated team like Tampa Bay does in order to win their division, so the overall playoff outlook is much rosier for the Cowboys.

  9. Anonymous says:

    @Mike, also, Dallas is a better team by Brian's rankings, and they have the easier part of their schedule to come.

  10. Anonymous says:

    Brian, where do you put BAL's win probability this week if both of OAK's top RBs are out?

  11. Anonymous says:

    If you had to guess...

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