Playoff Projections - Week 9

Playoff projections are back! As always, these numbers come courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com and are generated with the help of his NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to create a Monte Carlo season simulation. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.

The Texans have the inside track in the AFC and the Falcons have it in the NFC. No surprise there. The AFC South, AFC West, NFC South and NFC West appear to be locks for the Texans, Broncos, Falcons, and 49ers. The one counter-intuitive projection is that Baltimore is not the favorite in the AFC North despite having a full game lead on Pittsburgh.



AFC EAST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
NE5134123
MIA4238155
NYJ4194828
BUF292564
AFC NORTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
PIT5334103
BAL4142133
CIN5195423
CLE152371
AFC SOUTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
HOU98200
IND271234
TEN0235720
JAC042076
AFC WEST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
DEN95500
OAK358371
SD137593
KC00496
NFC EAST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
NYG801631
DAL11442916
PHI6243733
WAS3163151
NFC NORTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
CHI5028157
GB28322417
MIN15253328
DET7162849
NFC SOUTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
ATL99100
TB1503613
CAR0424415
NO072073
NFC WEST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
SF93610
SEA5622410
STL1163944
ARI1173746


AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team1st2nd3rd4th5th6thTotal
HOU77145120100
DEN124425141198
NE5131915151278
MIA213189201275
BAL181319111063
PIT1615317969
IND0110121125
OAK0111121430
CIN01133513
BUF0011248
SD00116816
NYJ00136918
TEN0000235
CLE0001012
JAC0000000
KC0000000
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team1st2nd3rd4th5th6thTotal
ATL492315110099
SF243123152297
NYG172324177593
CHI8121615161178
GB14913141355
MIN024881133
DAL013791232
SEA0121231643
DET012481025
PHI00142412
WAS00123510
ARI0000347
TB0001247
STL0001236
CAR0000011
NO0000000

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7 Responses to “Playoff Projections - Week 9”

  1. Ken R. says:

    Am I reading this correctly? Of course the Texans are in the drivers seat.... But a 100% chance of making the playoffs? In fact a 100% chance of a #5 or better seeding?

  2. Chris says:

    Hi Ken --

    Brian rounds numbers to the nearest whole percent. You can see the insignificant figures to the right of the decimal in the tables on my blog.

    http://files.nfl-forecast.com/

  3. Brian Burke says:

    One implicit assumption is that the teams will maintain their current composition. In other words, there won't be any significant injuries. Of course that's a false assumption. The Texans lost Schaub last season and it was a major set back. You can read these numbers to say, "If the teams continue to play at their level, these are their chances..."

  4. Ken R. says:

    Ah... I see. Thanks for the explanations .

  5. thegoodgrind18 says:

    I'm curious if you could answer this question for me. I was curious watching the Bama/LSU game when there was a holding penalty on Bama. It would have been 4th and 10 at LSU 40 yard line meaning a punt for Bama or Les Miles could have accepted the penalty and had a 3rd and 31 at the Bama 39 yardline. At what point do you accept the penalty and hope for better field position. The score at the time was 3-0 LSU if that matters... Has there been math done on it already?

    Appreciate you taking the time answering.

  6. Joseph says:

    @thegoodgrind18:
    I'm not Brian, but I say you make them punt. Too many chances to have a defensive penalty to keep a drive alive. At that point in the game, and a game that should be low-scoring (even though it wasn't as low-scoring as most saw it), I say you want the ball. The most likely scenario is that ALA picks up some yardage, bringing up 4th & 15-20, and you get the ball back at near the same point as the punt would if you DIDN'T accept the penalty.
    @ these published playoff odds: I MUST assume that this was published before last night's game, and that the Saints' odds would be better than what the table says. I mean, the Saints are tied for 2nd IN THEIR OWN DIVISION (and at the moment, have the tiebreaker over Tampa). How is it that CAR, for example, has a better chance than the Saints??? (In other divisions, 4th place teams might have a better shot at the playoffs by winning the division--CAR & NOR have the same division, and the Saints are 1 game closer + have 2 chances to beat ATL--CAR has only 1 such chance. If ATL beats CAR, they have no chance of winning the division [lose tiebreaker if CAR wins out and ATL loses out]. If ATL beats the Saints this Sunday, there is still a mathematical chance (ATL 9-0, NOR 3-6) for NOR to finish ahead. If NOR wins, then the records are ATL 8-1, NOR 4-5 --not great chances, but better than CAR's.)
    Based on this, I would advise you, Brian, to run the table AFTER the MNF game. Even I as a Saints fan have little expectation of a playoff berth--maybe 10% chance. But this model giving them a (rounded) 0% chance is off, seeing the would have the tiebreaker over PHI & TB, and have a lead over CAR.

  7. Joseph says:

    Replying to myself--I made one big error in that post--TB is 4-4. For some strange reason, I was thinking that they are 3-5 like my Saints.
    Anyway, one of the thrusts of my post would still be "How on earth can a team in the same division with a worse W/L record have a (slightly) better chance to make the playoffs?? [Esp. considering that the NFL doesn't consider rating systems like Brian's & DVOA.]

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