Most readers are familiar with the Comeback Factor (CBF) stat. It measures the unlikelihood of the win at the lowpoint of the game for the eventual winning team. For example, if a team comes back to win from a 0.05 WP, that would be a CBF of 20 (1/.05 = 20). A team that comes back from a 0.01 WP earns a CBF of 100.
On the flip side of that equation is the Blown Game Factor (BGF), a stat which measures how badly a team blows a game. If a team has a 0.95 WP and goes on to lose, its BGF is a 20. It's really no different than Comeback Factor--it's just measured from a different perspective.
TB already has 4 games with a BGF of 20 or higher, meaning at one point they had at least a 0.95 WP. The table below lists all the teams in the database (since 1999) with 2 or more games with a BGF of at least 20. That's not the only way to measure total heartbreak, so I included some other numbers.
The 3rd column lists each team's total BGF for their losses. The 4th column lists each team's total peak Win Probability in each of their losses. These are alternative ways of measuring a team's total level of heartbreak in a season. The final column lists the number of losses for the season. All numbers are for the regular season only.
|Team||>20 BGF||Tot. BGF||Tot. Peak WP||L|
It's interesting that not all teams on the list are losing teams. There's even a 13-win team and a 12-win team on the list. I suppose that makes sense, good teams are probably more likely to suffer more blown games simply because they hold more commanding leads.
It's also interesting that the 7-9 2012 Buccaneers are on the list.