Win Probability Added, Expected Points Added, Success Rate, and more for every skill player since 2000. Find out who really made a difference for their team when it mattered most, by position or by team:
Check out the Win Probability graphs and play-by-play of your favorite team's biggest comebacks and most exciting games. Browse the archive for previous years or the current season by week:
Mar 10, 2010
Mar 9, 2010
Individual Player Pages
Another new addition to the individual player stats is up and running. Each player now has his own page for all years of his career, or at least since 2000. There are pages by position, by team, and now by player. You can navigate to each player page via the position pages or team pages.
If you're curious about the career arcs of Ladanian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook, you can check out their pages. All the fantasy stats aside, it's interesting to see who really helped his team win more.
How does Anquan Boldin compare to the current stable of Ravens receivers? Boldin is a big upgrade over Derrick Mason...right?
Mar 7, 2010
Bill Polian Doesn't Get It
Polian thinks Belichick made the right call on the infamous 4th and 2 play. But according to him, "All of the statistical analysis that’s done over the course of a season means nothing."
As one of the guys who authored that analysis, I find it ironic that the rest of his comments were laced with pseudo-statistical mumbo-jumbo:
Mar 5, 2010
Roundup 3/5
Scientists find the part of the brain that causes coaches to punt too often. (Hat tip: Marginal Revolution)
The Coase theorem says that dynamic ticket pricing is a good idea.
The Chicago Sun-Times says that Jay Cutler's interceptions were all due to poor decisions and not to pass protection deficiencies. Seems KC Joyner was right and I was wrong about Cutler going into last season. The stats show Cutler was a still minor upgrade over Orton, even accounting for all the interceptions. Whether the trade was worth it is another matter.
Jason Lisk defends Joe Namath from the charge he may not be a legitimate Hall of Fame QB. My take--It's the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of Passing Efficiency. He definitely belongs.
Lisk also tells us all about real football. If you read one link from this post, read this one.
What tends to happen to teams that lose the Super Bowl?
Mar 3, 2010
"Tackle Factor"
I keep seeing 49ers linebacker Patrick Willis' name listed at the top of defensive player statistics the last few years. He led the league in tackles in 2009 and 2007, and was second in 2008, but does this mean that Willis is really a top player?
Most fans understand that the tackle statistic is not a very good way to measure a defender. Weaker defenses tend to give up longer drives, giving players more opportunities to make tackles. So in a perverse way, more tackles can be a bad thing. If a defensive back has a lot of tackles, it may be because he's being thrown on successfully. Plus, certain positions get more tackles by the nature of team defense. Middle and inside linebackers will naturally have the most tackles by virtue of their role and where they are at the snap. If you scan down the list of the season leaders in tackles, you're likely to see a simple list of each team's central linebacker, assuming he was healthy most of the year. So how can we tell if Patrick Willis is really that good using just tackle information?
Mar 2, 2010
Individual Player Stats by Team
Team pages are now available for advanced individual player stats. Win Probability Added (WPA), Expected Points Added (EPA), and Success Rate (SR) for 'skill' players are organized by team. You can get to the team pages directed by using the site menu to navigate to Stats|By Team, or you can click on the team links next to each player in the position pages.
Which players made the 2001 Rams so potent? How much did the 2007 Patriots running game contribute to their team's success? Was the 2000 Ravens offense really that bad? Were the 2005 Steelers built on running and defense, or was it actually their passing game? Which receiver was most critical to the Saints' 2009 championship run? Now you know.


